No one has a crystal ball, and relying on one or two opinions can be risky when it comes to the single largest asset for most people… That’s why we see the Home Price Expectation Survey as one of the most important of the home price forecasts.
Every quarter Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists about where prices are headed over the next 5 years. This is invaluable information if you are considering selling or buying a home and where the market is headed is going to influence that decision. Here is a chart that summarizes the findings:
The Results are in:
- Home prices will appreciate by 4.3% in 2015
- The average yearly appreciation will be 3.84% through 2015
- The cumulative appreciation through 2015 will be 19.2%
- Even the most pessimistic panelists forecast cumulative appreciation of 11.8% through 2015
- The average annual appreciation forecast of 3.84% compares favorably with the pre-bubble actual annual growth rate of 3.6%
- We’re now in what we would call a “normal appreciation pattern” that would suggest a more consistent and predictable market
- The survey doesn’t take into account influential local conditions, such as our continued tight inventory, that can make local results more volatile.
The Bottom Line:
We think it’s great any time we see reliable information that would indicate we’re easing back into a more normal real estate market. We’re probably at that fine line where we don’t want any more large jumps in home prices. One of the reasons for the low inventory we’re experiencing currently is that the “move-up buyer”, who historically supply a large number of the homes on the market at any one time, are getting stretched thin with how high the cost of their next home is going to be. While none of us want to see a decline in home prices, the next best thing is for the appreciation to at least be reasonable… Let’s hope the survey continues its track record of accuracy!
Like me, if you want to be notified when new survey results are published you can email Pulsenomics at firstname.lastname@example.org to get on their distribution list. If I can help you with any real estate related questions or issues, please reach out to me anytime at (925) 487-2353 or at email@example.com.